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New scenarios of how UK climate might change over the course of the century are being launched today (16 April 2002) by Margaret Beckett, Secretary of State for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. The scenarios are based on predictions which were specially undertaken by the Met Office Hadley Centre. They show changes in much more detail than has been available previously, as they have been produced using the Met Office Hadley Centre's new regional climate model with a resolution of 50 km. Extensive analyses of the results from the model have been carried
out by the Met Office Hadley Centre and the Tyndall Centre at UEA
Norwich. Shown below are changes in precipitation and temperature,
by the 2080s, for summer and winter seasons. Winter rainfall is
predicted to increase by up to 30%, particularly in the south,
with the potential for a greater incidence of flooding, but summer
rainfall could decrease by up to 50%, again particularly in the
south, threatening water supplies. These changes are more extreme
than in previous scenarios. Sea level will rise, leading to a much
greater frequency of high water levels from storm surges on some
coasts. Changes in extremes are also analysed; for example, days
of heavy rainfall are predicted to increase in winter.
The scenarios are presented in a report*, written jointly by the Met Office Hadley Centre and the Tyndall Centre, for the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP), and funded by the Global Atmosphere Division of DEFRA. It is expected that these new scenarios will be widely used to assess the impacts of climate change on a range of UK regions and businesses. In addition to predictions of future change, a new baseline data set, containing monthly averages from 1961-2000 of many meteorological variables at 5 km resolution, has been constructed by the Met Office. For a more detailed description, with details of how to access the scenario data and the reports, please visit the UKCIP web site www.ukcip.org.uk. More information on the work of the Met Office Hadley Centre The Met Office has already carried out many assessments of the
impact of climate change on sectors of business and industry, for
example water resources, flooding, building subsidence for the insurance
industry. To inquire how our Consulltancy group can make similar
assessments, in the UK or globally, for your business, please contact
us. Notes * Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom: the UKCIP02 Scientific Report. M. Hulme, G.J. Jenkins, X. Lu, J.R. Turnpenny, T.D. Mitchell, R.G. Jones, J. Lowe, J.M. Murphy and D. Hassell. Tyndall Centre, University of East Anglia, April 2002. A shorter version is also available as: Links Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs: www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/index.htm For more information contact: |
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