In June and July 2007 there were major floods in parts of
England and Wales when exceptionally large amounts of rain fell in very
short periods. We have looked back at what happened, meteorologically,
and also at our own forecasts and warnings during both periods.
Our findings highlight very clearly that, overall, for both 24-25 June and 19-20 July we issued accurate forecasts and timely warnings of severe rainfall. However, it must be recognised that accurately forecasting heavy rainfall is only a contribution to the forecast required for actual flooding. Our role was to ensure other organisations such as the Environment Agency were kept informed throughout both events.
Another finding was that being able to use a higher-resolution simulation of the whole of the UK would have provided significantly more useful detail, further ahead, for the areas affected by extreme rainfall, particularly with the July flooding.
Moving forward we will be looking to strengthen our working relationships with agencies across, both, local and central government. We have already been contributing to The Pitt Review of the floods.
June
On Monday 25 June prolonged heavy rainfall resulted in many parts of north and east England being flooded.
| Met Office forecast timeline - June 2007 | ||
|---|---|---|
 |
Localised torrential downpours continued with many Flash warnings issued | |
| 21 June | News Release issued to highlight unseasonable weather over the midsummer period | |
| 22 June | Early Warning issued to public, government and emergency services giving three days' notice of potential disruption | |
| 23 June | Further warnings and update to Early Warning issued for E/NE England | |
| 24 June | Early Warning updated with highest probabilities for disruption in an arc from Yorkshire and Humberside to the Welsh Borders, with rainfall totals of 'up to 100 mm or so' | |
| 25 June | Flash warnings issued for heavy and persistent rain across the high risk areas during the day | |
Weather conditions
 |
| Surface synoptic analysis, Monday 25 June at 1800 UTC |
Days before the actual flooding, the ground around the worst-hit areas became saturated by very heavy rain. Many sites in Yorkshire received at least a month's rainfall in 24 hours.
On Monday 25th a slow-moving area of low pressure brought a prolonged period of heavy rain to northern and central England. Hitting the already saturated north-east, the water had nowhere else to go and, as a result, led to major flooding.
Impacts
- Surface water flooding in Hull
- Widespread disruption and damage to more than 7,000 houses and 1,300 businesses in Hull
- Five people died
- River Don burst its banks, flooding Sheffield and Doncaster
- Flooding in Derbyshire, Lincolnshire and Worcestershire
- Highest official rainfall total was 111 mm at Fylingdales (N Yorkshire). Amateur networks recorded similar totals in the Hull area
- There were fears that the dam wall at the Ulley Reservoir near Rotherham would burst
Met Office actions
- Chief Forecaster managed communications to public via BBC and ITV
- Operations Centre kept customers, such as the emergency services, informed
- Account Managers kept customers, such as the Utilities, informed
- Press release issued and media contacted
- Ministers briefed
A heightened alert state is retained during the week 25-30 June, because of the threat of further rain.
July
The second event caused localised flash flooding across parts of southern England on the morning of 20 July, and later in the day across the Midlands.
| Met Office forecast timeline - July 2007 | ||
|---|---|---|
 |
Medium-range computer forecast suggests a vigorous weather system could move toward the UK and engage with relatively warm air over northern France | |
| 18 July | Early Warning issued in the morning, central and eastern areas of England at risk of disruption from 60-90 mm of rain | |
| 19 July | Risk areas narrowed to south-west Midlands, Gloucestershire and Oxfordshire. Possible rainfall total increased to 75-100 mm | |
| 20 July | Flash warnings for southern and central England issued before 0900 | |
Weather conditions
 |
| Surface synoptic analysis, Friday 20 July at 1200 UTC |
Impacts
- Widespread disruption to the motorway and rail networks
- In the following days the River Severn and tributaries in Gloucestershire, Worcestershire, Herefordshire, Shropshire broke banks and flooded surrounding areas
- River Thames and its tributaries in Wiltshire, Oxfordshire, Berkshire and Surrey flooded
- Flooding in Telford and Wrekin, Staffordshire, Warwickshire and Birmingham
- The highest recorded rainfall total was 157.4 mm in 48 hours at Pershore College (Worcs)
Met Office actions
- Met Office Executive Board briefed on 16 July about the chances of this event
- Baroness Young, Chief Executive of the Environment Agency (EA), briefed personally
- Regular conference calls with Environment Agency, including regional staff
- Attendance at Civil Contingencies meetings at the Cabinet Office Briefing Room (COBR)
- Liaison between Met Office, Environment Agency and Highways Agency press teams and the media were briefed
- Conferencing with Network Rail
- Development and delivery of a new forecast product for the Environment Agency and the Cabinet Office, giving additional information on rainfall amounts and forecast confidence
