In 2006 Met Office and three leading energy companies launched a pioneering scoping study into climate change and its potential impacts on the UK energy industry. The study was the first nationwide attempt to identify how climate change will affect energy generation; distribution and transmission, and demand. As well as initial indications on how climate change could impact the industry over the next century, it also identified areas where further research was required.
Following the scoping study of 2006, even more members of the energy industry have commissioned the Met Office to further examine the impacts of climate change on their strategy, operations and planning.
EP2 - The Impact of Climate Change on the UK Energy Industry - is a year-long research project involving the majority of the UK energy industry, and is facilitated by the Met Office.
The project is not the Met Office simply producing a weather forecast for 2050, but is about the Met Office applying its expertise to bridge the gap between customers' needs and the uncertainties inherent in emissions pathways and climate prediction models.
It will deliver recommendations, exclusively to the industry professionals, on how best to asses the impacts of climate change, which will be implemented across industry decision making, strategic planning, and investment.
Among the many different and difficult questions posed by climate change, EP2 will seek to answer the following.
- What will be the impact of climate change on energy supply throughout the UK?
- How will the output and efficiency of thermal generation be affected?
- How will changes to sea level and storm surge affect the design and operation of coastal power stations?
- Will climate change provide greater opportunities to harness reliable source of renewable energy?
The study will also look at developing a baseline for historical climatological information. The current meteorological industry standard is to use a 30-year average, from 1961-1990. This period is significantly cooler than our current climate and, recently, the Met Office has started using the period 1971-2000.
Given the rapid change in temperature in recent years, the climate information needs to be centred on the climate of the current year – not a historical year. A new methodology is needed to use historical analysis of climate trends and projected changes to generate expected weather statistics for the current year.
To discuss the range of services and prices in detail please contact our Customer Centre and ask for Energy sales or e-mail us at energy@metoffice.gov.uk.
