Probability forecasting
Who is it for?
This workshop course is aimed at all trained and experienced forecasters who have to incorporate an element of probability, or an assessment of risk, in the forecasts that they produce at their station. Medium-range forecasters (those forecasting for three to ten days ahead) would especially benefit from this course.
What is the aim of the course?
The course is designed to equip students with the knowledge and skills necessary to effectively exploit Risk Forecasting and Probabilistic Forecasting techniques.
What will students learn?
By the end of the course the delegates will (with reference to course
notes) be able to:
- Correctly explain the concept of Probability Forecasting.
- Correctly explain the concept of Risk.
- Suggest reasons why chaos and unpredictability affect a forecast.
- Effectively distinguish between point, area and average point
probabilities.
- Accurately demonstrate the use of PREVIN products etc. to generate
a forecast.
- Evaluate the benefit of using a risk approach for a range of customers.
- Effectively demonstrate knowledge of future developments within the field.
What does the course cover?
The course begins with an introduction to the concepts of probability forecasting, and the use of ensembles, to try to model or understand chaotic behaviour. Next it shows the outputs illustrated on the PREVIN Met Office web site and how these can be used in medium-range forecasts.
The course then considers how individual customer needs can be addressed by a probabilistic approach. This includes a brainstorming session. A sales manager from a Marine environment will explain how they used and sold the concept of risk assessment in that discipline. A practical example of using the assessment of risk to define parameters and a case study complete the course.
What is the course duration?
The Probability Course is a two-day residential course at the Met
Office College.
If appropriate facilities are available, this course could also be adapted and provided, by Met Office College instructors, at your organisation.
